2014年4月26日 星期六

Latest News Clips 2014.04.28

      
1.  South Korea ferry disaster: transcript shows crew crippled by indecision 
Messages between officers on vessel and traffic officials reveal miscommunication and hesitation at crucial phase 
The Guardian, 20 April 2014  


Officers manning the stricken South Korean ferry that sank last week were hamstrung by indecision and communication problems at the critical moment when deciding whether to evacuate passengers, according to the full communications transcript. 

As divers continued to pull bodies from the submerged vessel on Monday, the calls between the crew of the Sewol and traffic officials on the nearby island of Jindo reveal hesitation and uncertainty during a crucial phase in the disaster. 

The transcript is certain to add to the anger felt by the relatives of the approximately 240 missing passengers, most of them teenagers who were on a school trip. 

"If this ferry evacuates passengers, will they be rescued right away?" an unnamed crew member asked officials at Jindo vessel traffic services centre at 9:24 am on Wednesday, about 30 minutes after the ship began listing, apparently after making a sharp turn in a stretch of water peppered with tiny islands and known for its strong currents. 

The initial delay in getting all 476 passengers, including 350 high school pupils and their teachers, off the ship made the task far harder. Officers on the bridge of the Sewol, which lies submerged in water off the south-west coast of South Korea, had already indicated that once the vessel was tilting heavily to one side, passengers increasingly found themselves unable to move. 

In another message, the bridge told officials on Jindo that it was "impossible" to broadcast instructions to passengers. 

"Even if it's impossible to broadcast, please go out and let the passengers wear life jackets and put on more clothing," an unidentified traffic official said in response. 

The bridge then asked about the prospects of an immediate rescue effort. 

The unnamed official on Jindo replied: "The rescue of human lives on the Sewol ferry ... the captain should make [his] own decision and evacuate them. 

"We are not fully aware of the situation, so the captain should make the final decision on whether you're going to evacuate passengers or not." 

The crew member replied: "No, I'm not talking about that. I'm asking, if they evacuate now, can they be rescued right away?" 

At this point there appears to have been a confused response from the traffic official, who said rescue boats would arrive in 10 minutes, but failed to mention that a nearby civilian ship had already offered to help 10 minutes earlier. 

More evidence that human error may have been a key factor in the disaster – the worst in South Korea for 20 years – came as divers continued to pull bodies from the wreck on Monday after finding a way into the ship on Sunday. The number of confirmed dead now stands at 64. 

After days of frustration because of strong currents, divers have now found several ways into the submerged ferry. That includes a new entryway into the dining hall made early Monday morning, Koh Myung-seok, a government spokesman, said. 

2.U.S., Japan Fail to Clinch Trade Deal 
Bilateral Accord Seen as Key Step for Moving Trans-Pacific Partnership Talks Forward 

The wall Street Journal  April 24, 2014  

TOKYO—The U.S. and Japan failed to clinch a last-minute deal on free trade, damping hopes for an early conclusion of a broader trade deal across the Pacific. 

Japan's economy minister Akira Amari told reporters Friday morning that the two countries have been unable to reach accord on any of the major contentious issues, including market access for automobiles and agricultural products. 

A bilateral accord is a crucial step for moving forward discussions on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a U.S.-led free trade initiative involving 12 nations. It is also the main economic component of Mr. Obama's foreign policy "pivot" to Asia. 

Mr. Amari and U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman were tasked with resolving all outstanding issues on bilateral free trade while President Barack Obama was in Tokyo. The instruction was given Thursday by Mr. Obama and Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. An expected meeting Friday between Messrs. Amari and Froman didn't take place, as the representatives decided further talks wouldn't yield any more progress, Mr. Amari said. 

In a statement, the two countries said they "have identified a path forward on important bilateral TPP issues" that "will inject fresh momentum into the broader talks." The statement didn't give specifics and cautioned that "there is still much work to be done to conclude TPP." 

Mr. Obama left Tokyo Friday morning to continue a four-nation Asia tour, which will take him also to South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines. 

Messrs. Froman and Amari held face-to-face talks over 40 hours in the past three weeks, either in Tokyo or in Washington, aiming to scrape together a broad accord that would demonstrate that the two countries stand together on key economic issues in the face of an assertive China. 

But rather than showing the strength of the bilateral alliance, which the two countries call the cornerstone of peace and security in Asia Pacific, the failure to make a breakthrough has revealed a divide between the two allies.    

3. The antibiotics that could kill you 
CNN    April 22, 2014


STORY HIGHLIGHTS 
  • Martin BlaserOverprescription of antibiotics put Americans at risk for disease 
  • He says we wipe out good, protective germs, bringing danger of "antibiotic winter" 
  • With lower resistance, plague inevitable in interconnected world, he says 
  • Blaser: Targeted antibiotics, less interference in natural process are key to cutting vulnerability 

(CNN) -- In 2010, Americans were prescribed 258 million courses of antibiotics, a rate of 833 per thousand people. Such massive usage, billions of doses, has been going on year after year. 
We have few clues about the consequences of our cumulative exposures. We do know that widespread antibiotic treatments make us more susceptible to invaders by selecting for resistant bacteria. 
These risks are now well-known, but I want to lay out a new concern: that antibiotic use over the years has been depleting the pool of our friendly bacteria -- in each of us -- and this is lowering our resistance to infections. In today's hyperconnected globe, that means that we are at high risk of future plagues that could spread without natural boundaries from person to person and that we could not stop. I call this "antibiotic winter." 

To explain: In the early 1950's, scientists conducted experiments to determine whether our resident microbes -- the huge number of bacteria that live in and on our bodies, now called our "microbiome" -- help in fending off invading bacteria. They fed mice a species of a typical invader, disease-causing salmonella. It took about 100,000 organisms to infect half of the normal mice. But when they first gave mice an antibiotic, which kills both good and bad bacteria, and then several days later gave them salmonella, it took only three organisms to infect them. This isn't a 10 or 20% difference; it's a 30,000-fold difference. 
That was in mice, but what about humans? In 1985, Chicago faced a massive outbreak of salmonella. At least 160,000 people became ill and several died from drinking contaminated milk. The health department asked victims of the outbreak and unaffected persons, "Have you received antibiotics in the month prior to becoming ill?" People who said yes were five times more likely to become ill than those who drank the milk but hadn't recently received antibiotics. 
People carry a small number of highly abundant bacterial species and a large number of much less common ones. For example, you may carry trillions of Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron in your colon and only a thousand cells, or fewer, belonging to many other species. We are not sure how many rare species any of us has. If you had only 50 cells of a particular type, it would be difficult to detect them against the background of trillions of others. 
When you take a broad-spectrum antibiotic, which is the kind most commonly prescribed, it may be that rare microbes occasionally get wiped out entirely. And once the population hits zero, there is no bouncing back. For your body, that species is now extinct. My worry is that some of these critical residential organisms -- what I consider "contingency" species -- may disappear altogether. 

2014年4月6日 星期日

Latest News Clips 2014.04.07

                     

  1. What China's Xi Jinping wants from Europe 

CNN
    April 2, 2014
This map shows the trade flows between China and the EU. 
 (CNN) -- When the European Council President Herman Van Rompuy welcomes Xi Jinping to Brussels on Monday, it will be the first time a Chinese president has visited European Union headquarters. 
But the trip isn't about making history -- it's about closing business deals with European firms. Xi will be accompanied by more than 200 Chinese business leaders, several of whom signed multi-billion agreements to buy airplanes and cars as the contingent swept through France and Germany on their way to Belgium. 
China's ultimate goal on the trip is to reach a wide-ranging trade agreement with the EU. In turn, the EU hopes to persuade China to open its markets to foreigners and attract more direct investment. 
The first round of the talks took place in January, but the Chinese seem eager to advance the negotiation much further this time around. Before embarking on the tour, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the National People's Congress that he hopes to "speed up the negotiation toward the investment agreement." 
Here is what the two sides want from the deal: 

Balancing trade 
More than $588.6 billion worth of goods are traded between the EU and China every year -- $1.6 billion every day, according to the latest data from European Commission. But Europe sells a lot less to the Chinese than it buys from them -- last year, its trade deficit with China was $180 billion. 
European investors want to take advantage of China's growing middle class and export more. 

More direct investment 
Despite the large volume of trade, mutual direct investment is still relatively low, with just over 2% of EU foreign direct investment being in China, according to the European Commission. 
For years, European companies sought to benefit from cheap labor by building factories in China, but today that trend is reversing. Chinese investors are now eyeing Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, where the eurozone crisis has pushed labor costs down and created hunger for foreign investment. 
China has announced an ambitious plan to invest $100 billion per year into Eastern European countries by 2015. It opened its first factory -- a Great Wall Motor assembly line -- in Bulgaria in 2012, giving the Chinese automaker duty-free access to the European market. 

Fair pricing 
Europe's trade relationship with China suffered several setbacks over dumping accusations last year. The EU tried to hit Chinese solar panels producers with high import duties, accusing China of dumping solar panels way below a fair price. 
In a tit-for-tat move, China then launched anti-subsidy probe into European wine imports. Although both disputes have now been resolved, only 1% of imports from China are covered by EU's anti-dumping measures. 
Removing barriers in China 
The EU says that China still imposes way too many barriers on foreign investors, who do not have access to sectors China deems as strategic, including transport, telecommunication and healthcare. 
Michał Król of the EU investment think tank ECIPE says this part of a potential trade agreement will be critical: "It is an attempt to establish symmetric market relations -- meaning that European and Chinese firms should have equivalent access to each other's' markets." 

How important is EU's trade with China? 
China is EU's second biggest trading partner, trailing only behind the U.S. Trade of goods between the two has quadrupled since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, reaching nearly $590 billion in 2013. 
The EU is China's biggest source of imports and its biggest export destination. European companies are fulfilling Chinese hunger for cars, planes, chemicals and luxury goods, while Europe imports $385 billion worth of textiles, electronics and other goods from China. 

2.Obamacare Shows America Suffers From A President Dangerously Disconnected From Reality 
Forbes    2014.04.04 
 
The population of the U.S. is 314 million. On the day Obamacare was passed, the estimate of the uninsured was 60 million. So in this context, the supposed 7 million Americans signed up for insurance on the Obamacare Exchanges, even if that is a valid number, and all of those have actually started paying premiums, both of which are highly dubious, does not mean any significant success for Obamacare. 

That is especially so since at least 6 million Americans have lost their health insurance due to Obamacare, so far, with more to come once the illegally and arbitrarily delayed employer mandate becomes effective, if it is ever allowed to do so. The estimate based on a new Rand Corporation study is that only 858,000 Americans signed up on the Obamacare Exchanges were previously uninsured. That is barely a dent of just over 1% in the original number of uninsured, from the historic Obamacare program that was supposed to provide “universal” coverage. 
Yes, there are other sources of coverage under Obamacare. President Obama told us in his celebratory, hocus pocus, Obamacare address on April Fools’ Day that “more than 3 million young adults have gained insurance under this law by staying on their family’s plan.” 

But that number is a publicly documented fabrication. It comes from a 2010 survey by the highly politicized Department of Health and Human Services estimating coverage for 19 to 25 year olds from all sources, including taxpayer financed Medicaid, and private insurance, which includes employer provided insurance and individually purchased plans, not just coverage from their parents’ health insurance, as David Hogberg explained at Spectator.org on April 2. 

Moreover, that data is now outdated, as later HHS surveys show that health coverage for 18 to 25 year olds has since declined from 2010, Hogberg adds. That is why HHS has not released any new data on the point for almost two years now. 

In addition, Hogberg further demonstrates based on 2012 data from the far less politicized Census Bureau, which breaks out data for Medicaid and employer provided health insurance, that the number of young adults gaining coverage on their parents’ health insurance under Obamacare totals at most 258,000. 

In any event, the virtue of this young adult dependency on their parents’ health insurance is greatly exaggerated. That coverage is not free. The parents are paying more for it. Moreover, these young adults are not helpless, with no alternatives for health insurance. They can get their own jobs with employer provided health insurance. Or at least they could if Obama was not President. Or they could buy their own health insurance in the market, with help from their parents, if that is needed and desired. Young adults under 26 are the least in need of health insurance, and have the least trouble getting it. The healthiest population in America, they are targeted under Obamacare as lambs to be fleeced for funds to finance health care for others. 


3.  Afghans Risk Lives to Vote in First Democratic Election Since 2001 
Bloomberg    Apr. 5, 2014 
Afghans braved threats of violence today to cast ballots in an election that could mark the nation’s first democratic transfer of power since the U.S. ousted the Taliban in 2001. 

Polling was extended by an hour as eight candidates compete to succeed President Hamid Karzai, who has delayed signing a pact that’s needed to keep U.S. troops in Afghanistan beyond this year. A German photographer with the Associated Press was shot dead yesterday while covering the campaign, part of violence that threatens to deter both voters and foreign investors. 


The question of who wins is less important than the question of what they can do to restore order once in power,” said Anna Larson, who co-wrote a report on voter perceptions sponsored by Chatham House, a London-based research group. “For Afghans, the true test of these elections is whether they can help secure a peaceful transition, or whether in fact they contribute to future insecurity.” 

Front-runners for the presidency are former World Bank economist Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, ex-foreign minister Zalmai Rassoul and Abdullah Abdullah, the runner up in 2009 who also served as the country’s top diplomat. All have pledged to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement with the U.S. 

Peaceful Handover’ 

This is a pivotal moment after more than a decade of sacrifice and struggle,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said in an April 2 statement. “The peaceful handover of power will be just as important as the progress achieved over the past decade in building a stronger, more secure and prosperous Afghanistan.” 

Preliminary results will be announced on April 24, according to the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan, with the final tally scheduled for May 14. As many as 12 million Afghans at home and 8 million living in other nations are eligible to vote. 

If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of votes -- a scenario the head of U.S. forces in the country views as probable -- a run-off between the top two candidates would take place around the end of May. 

The Taliban will boycott the polls and has vowed to use “all force” to disrupt the process that will be monitored by more than 260,000 people and will cost Asia’s poorest economy and its allies $136 million.