六法則把危機當成財富轉機
1. 股價腰斬跌至四至五年新低的好股票
2. 被市場冷落中小型民生產業龍頭股
3. 當成自己公司，才能抱久跟穩
4. 看市值GDP比逢高調節、逢低買進
5. 多頭走式時遇政治風暴是危機入市良機
6. 跌20%開始定期定額跌50%增加扣款
十指標:
1. 認識巴菲特指標
上市櫃總市值除與當年度GDP: 160%以上過熱 85%以下超跌
GDP如果由負轉正通常也出現絕對底部
2. 景氣對策燈號:
景氣登號是由九項指標(M1b、工業生產指標、股價指數、海關出口值等)
所組成。最高45分最低9分(紅、黃紅、綠、黃籃、籃)，
買籃(買在由籃變黃籃)賣紅心法，16分以下分批買進，32分以上逢高調節。
3. 月KD值: 80以上過熱、20以下超跌
4. 列出你的希望名單等時機:
高ROE(五年平均近20%)、高植利率、兼具產業地位
大統益、和泰車、華固、中鋼、正新、台達電、台橡、亞泥、華立、中保
5. M1b年增率:
M1b(通貨淨額、活期存款、支票存款、活期儲蓄存款組成)是衡量股市資金活水的重要指標之一, 歷史經驗如果M1b從20%以上再度降回20%以下常出現中期回檔，反之如果跌破0再從新站回0以上就是好買點。
6. ISM指數:
高於50代表制造業景氣括張，低於50代表景氣收縮，
買海外基金的或低於45定額買進高於60獲利了結。
7. VIX恐慌指數
45以上找買點危機入市，18以下找賣點
8. 高收益債利差
指需付出較高利率差額以吸引投資人購買。
利差自高檔反轉危機入市，利差擴大代表經濟趨緩景氣變壞。
節錄自今周刊768期
2011年9月14日 星期三
Latest News Clipping 2011.09.15
Bengo’s Latest News Clipping 2011.09.15
1. Can China and the other BRIC nations save Europe?
CNN September 14, 2011
Brazil, Russia, India and China -- the so-called BRIC nations -- may look to buy the debt of troubled European countries. But will it end the euro crisis?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- In the late 1980s, developed nations helped bail out Latin America and other emerging markets.
The issuance of so-called Brady bonds (named for the former Reagan/Bush-era Treasury secretary) enabled Brazil and other debt-laden countries to find a way out of the fiscal abyss.
Oh, how the tables have turned.
With Europe's credit and banking crisis seeming to get worse by the day, there are now several reports that Brazil -- as well as Russia, India and China -- may look to buy up a portion of sovereign debt from troubled European nations. You could a call it a BRIC Brady bond plan for the 21st century.
"Capital is flowing from lesser developed countries to higher per capita income countries. We are not used to that," said Jeffrey Bergstrand, a professor of finance with the Mendoza College of Business at the University of Notre Dame." But it makes sense because of the dramatic shift in global wealth."
2. High Cholesterol Levels Linked to Alzheimer Disease Risk, Researchers Say
The Bloomberg Sep 12, 2011
People who accumulate plaque on their arteries may be more prone to another insidious type of buildup -- one that clogs their brains.
Scientists who tested the cholesterol levels of 147 patients found that those with the highest readings were more likely to also have the brain plaque that signals Alzheimer’s disease. The research was published today in the medical journal Neurology.
The findings suggest that lowering cholesterol levels early in life may reduce the prevalence of Alzheimer’s, a progressive disease that starts with forgetfulness and eventually saps memories and independence. Doctors have struggled to understand, predict and slow the advance of the illness ever since it was first described by German doctor Alois Alzheimer more than a century ago.
3. Nation looks ahead with hope after remembering 9/11 victims
CNN Sep 13, 2011
New York (CNN) -- President Barack Obama on Sunday evening helped conclude remembrances of Americans who died in the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks with a message of unity and resolve for the years ahead.
"These past 10 years underscore the bonds between all Americans. We have not succumbed to suspicion and mistrust," Obama said at the "Concert for Hope" at the Kennedy Center in Washington. "It will be said of us that we kept that faith; that we took a painful blow, and emerged stronger."
The concert, which included performances by Patti LaBelle, mezzo-soprano Denyce Graves and Alan Jackson, who sang "Where Were You," followed solemn observances in New York, Washington and Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
"These past 10 years have shown that America does not give in to fear," Obama said Sunday night.
Thousands gathered earlier at New York's ground zero, site of the World Trade Center, and stood still in silence, some crying as they listened to the names of victims of the attacks read aloud.
4. Greece Is to Remain in Euro: Sarkozy, Merkel
Bloomberg Sep 14, 2011
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they are “convinced” Greece will stay in the euro area as they faced international calls to step up efforts in fighting the region’s debt crisis.
The euro rose after the leaders of Europe’s two biggest economies issued a statement yesterday following a telephone conversation with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. Papandreou committed to meet deficit-reduction targets demanded as a condition for an international bailout, according to statements from governments in Athens, Berlin and Paris.
The remarks were “a good thing,” said John Doyle, a strategist in Washington at currency-trading firm Tempus Consulting Inc. “They’re just words at this point, but that’s why we’re seeing the euro pop against the dollar.”
European governments are aiming to ratify a July 21 agreement to bolster the euro region’s bailout fund and extend a second rescue to Greece. Investor skittishness over the spread of the debt crisis has raised banks’ funding costs and roiled markets worldwide.
Sarkozy and Merkel “are convinced that the future of Greece is in the euro zone,” the French statement said.
Latest news clipping 2011.09.09
1. Ma 'loathes' Soong: WikiLeaks cable
The China Post September 7, 2011
Classified diplomatic cables made public by WikiLeaks yesterday confirmed what was long suspected in Taiwan politics: President Ma Ying-jeou doesn't like People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong and wouldn't heed the advice of Kuomintang (KMT) Honorary Chairman Lien Chan.
2. Leaked cables reveal DPP infighting
The China Post September 8, 2011
Ex-Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) yesterday addressed fresh WikiLeaks documents claiming that Su had referred to Tsai as inexperienced and “not at all a powerful leader.”
The publicized diplomatic cables record Su's remarks on Tsai during his private meetings with the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) directors in 2008 and 2009.
3. Stocks Zigzag as Bulls, Bears Wage Battle .
The Wall Street Journal SEPTEMBER 8, 2011
NEW YORK—U.S. stocks bounced between small gains and losses Thursday morning, as investors digested another weak reading on the jobs market ahead of glimpses into policy makers' and central bankers' efforts to help the struggling economy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 27 points, or 0.2%, to 11442 in midmorning trade, after falling by as much as 69 points shortly after the opening bell. The blue-chip benchmark is coming off a 276-point surge on Wednesday, fueled by a favorable mix of a rally in bank stocks, positive headlines on European debt.
4. Obama Challenges Congress on Job Plan
New York Times September 8, 2011
WASHINGTON — Mixing politically moderate proposals with a punchy tone, President Obama challenged lawmakers on Thursday to "pass this jobs bill" — a blunt call on Congress to enact his $447 billion package of tax cuts and new government spending designed to revive a stalling economy as well as his own political standing.
Speaking to a joint session of Congress, Mr. Obama ticked off a list of measures that he emphasized had been supported by both Republicans and Democrats in the past. To keep the proposals from adding to the swelling federal deficit, Mr. Obama also said he would set his sights on a more ambitious target for long-term reduction of the deficit.
“You should pass this jobs plan right away,” the president declared over and over in his 32-minute speech that eschewed Mr. Obama’s trademark oratory in favor of a plainspoken appeal for action — and a few sarcastic political jabs.
With Republicans listening politely but with stone-faced expressions, Mr. Obama said, “The question is whether, in the face of an ongoing national crisis, we can stop the political circus and actually do something to help the economy.”
5. Officials confirm 'credible but unconfirmed' 9/11 threat
CNN Sep. 9, 2011
Washington (CNN) -- U.S. officials said Thursday evening they have "specific, credible but unconfirmed" information about a potential threat against the United States coinciding with the 10th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks.
"We have received credible information very recently about a possible plot directed at the homeland that seems to be focused on New York and Washington, D.C.," a senior administration official told CNN Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr.
The official said the plot was believed to involve three individuals, including a U.S. citizen. U.S. officials believed the threat was a vehicle laden with explosives, but "the intelligence picture is not completely formed," the official said. "Not enough is known about the potential operatives and their plotting."
Another source gave CNN conflicting information about possible details of the threat.
A senior law enforcement official involved in briefings about the matter told CNN Justice Department Producer Terry Frieden that his best information is that the three individuals had not yet entered the United States.
2011年8月31日 星期三
Latest News Clipping 2011.09.01
Tripoli Divided as Rebels Jostle to Fill Power Vacuum
August 30, 2011
TRIPOLI, Libya — Fighters from the western mountain city of Zintan control the airport. The fighters from Misurata guard the central bank, the port and the prime minister’s office, where their graffiti has relabeled the historic plaza “Misurata Square.” Berbers from the mountain town Yafran took charge of the city’s central square, where they spray-painted “Yafran Revolutionaries.”
A week after rebels broke into Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s former stronghold, much of its territory remains divided into fiefs, each controlled by quasi-independent brigades representing different geographic areas of the country. And the spray paint they use to mark their territory tells the story of a looming leadership crisis in the capital, Tripoli.
The top civilian officials of the Libyan rebels’ Transitional National Council — now styling itself as a provisional government to be based in the capital — are yet to arrive, citing personal safety concerns even as they pronounce the city fully secure.
2. Aging Baby Boomers May Curb U.S. Expansion
Aug. 30, 2011
This is not your mother’s recovery.
Women and baby boomers entering the American workforce after 1950 helped to supercharge expansions in 1975 and 1983 by filling an increasing number of jobs and purchasing more goods and services. Now as the share of women with jobs falls and older Americans age into retirement, the shrinking -- or, at best, slowly growing -- workforce will weaken economic activity for the next two decades.
The demographic changes may be the biggest and least- appreciated reason why the two-year recovery has slowed, because the rate of growth for labor and capital is “the most important determinant” of economic expansion, said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis.
More retirees mean slower household formation, reduced consumer spending and downward pressure on equity prices as retirement cuts people’s purchasing power, according to John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Capital Markets Group in New York, and Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
3. Sony, Toshiba, Hitachi to Unload LCD Units to Japan Government-Backed Fund
Aug 31, 2011
Sony Corp. (6758), Toshiba Corp. (6502) and Hitachi Ltd. (6501) agreed to divest their liquid-crystal display businesses to a government-backed fund amid mounting competition from South Korean and Taiwanese producers.
The companies will spin off and merge the units to create Japan Display K.K. next year, the three Tokyo-based electronics makers said today. The government-backed Innovation Network Corp. of Japan will own 70 percent of the venture after a 200 billion yen ($2.6 billion) investment, while Sony, Toshiba and Hitachi will split the remaining 30 percent, they said.
The deal may create the world’s biggest maker of LCDs for mobile phones and cameras as Japanese companies struggle to compete against Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co. and Taiwan’s Chimei Innolux Corp. (3481) in the larger market for television displays. Sony and Hitachi are unprofitable in LCDs, while Toshiba ended losses at its display division last fiscal year.
4. Japan's new leader: A snowball's chance?
CNN Aug. 30, 2011
(CNN) -- In his acceptance as elected leader of the ruling Democratic Party, Japan's new Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda likened his nation's political plight as a snowball falling fast downhill.
"Running Japan's government is like pushing a giant snowball up a snowy, slippery hill," he said. "In times like this, we can't say, 'I don't like this person,' or 'I don't like that person.' The snowball will slide down."
A snowball doesn't stand much chance in Japan these days. As travelers who step off at Narita International Airport immediately notice, things are toasty in Tokyo. The loss of power supply in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster has the government asking businesses to cut electrical consumption by 15% and set temperatures inside public buildings like the Narita terminal at a balmy 28 degrees Celsius (82.4 degree Fahrenheit).
Beyond the heat of power problems and rebuilding from the devastating March 11 earthquake and tsunami, the 54-year old takes leadership of a nation that
has been economically stuck in a decades-long malaise -- saddled with a huge public debt that's being dragged down by the world's fastest aging population and exacerbated by a strong yen, which is hurting profits of Japan's export powerhouses like Toyota and Sony.
5. ExxonMobil clinches Arctic oil deal with Rosneft
Under the deal, Exxon and Rosneft will invest $3.2bn (£1.9bn) in developing the Arctic Kara Sea
30 August 2011
ExxonMobil's joint venture with Rosneft has dashed any hopes that BP had of reviving its deal with Rosneft that was blocked in May.
Exxon, the world's largest company, and Rosneft signed a deal to develop oil and gas reserves in the Russian Arctic, opening up one of the last unconquered drilling frontiers.
The deal, signed in the presence of Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin, dashes any hopes that BP had of reviving its own deal with Rosneft that was blocked in May by its billionaire partners in an existing Russian venture.
Exxon boss Rex Tillerson and Russia's top energy official deputy prime minister Igor Sechin were with Putin at the signing ceremony in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.
Calling the deal a "truly strategic partnership" and hailing Exxon's experience in exploiting Arctic reserves in Canada, Putin said: "New horizons are opening up. One of the world's leading companies, ExxonMobil, is starting to work on Russia's strategic shelf and deepwater continental shelf," Putin said.
2011年8月24日 星期三
Lastest news clipping 2011.08.25
1. Rebels launch siege on Gadhafi compound
CNN Aug. 23, 2011
Tripoli, Libya (CNN) -- Libyan rebels surrounded Moammar Gadhafi's compound in Tripoli Tuesday, entering one of the gates and "attacking furiously," a rebel official told CNN.
As rebel fighters battled forces loyal to the Libyan leader, NATO also "hit some targets," said Mahmoud Shammam, minister of information for the National Transitional Council.
A CNN crew at a hotel nearby heard ferocious clashes and loud explosions coming from the compound, likely the sound of artillery shells being exchanged.
2. Hearing set after DA seeks to drop case against Strauss-Kahn
CNN Aug. 23, 2011
New York (CNN) -- The attorney for the woman who accused Dominique Strauss-Kahn of sexually assaulting her went on the offensive from Paris Tuesday, with an urgent plea for the disqualification of Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance.
Attorney Douglas Wigdor's news conference came just hours before a judge in New York was to consider a prosecution request to drop the charges against the former chief of the International Monetary Fund, citing questions about Nafissatou Diallo's credibility. A motion filed Monday by Wigdor's law partner, Kenneth Thompson, to disqualify Vance and appoint a special prosecutor, was rejected Tuesday by a judge.
"For the district attorney to now dismiss this case or seek to dismiss this case and turn his back on this victim because of so-called credibility issues is an affront not only on Ms. Diallo but an affront on all victims and sexual victims who come forward in the future," Wigdor said.
A "mountain of physical evidence" points toward a violent sexual assault during a 9-minute period inside Strauss-Kahn's New York hotel suite in May, Widgor told reporters in France, where he is gathering evidence for a civil lawsuit against the French citizen and onetime contender for that nation's presidency.
Prosecutors filed a "recommendation for dismissal" in the case Monday, noting more questions about Diallo's credibility.
"The nature and number of the complainant's falsehoods leave us unable to credit her version of events beyond a reasonable doubt, whatever the truth may be about the encounter between the complainant and the defendant," the document states. "If we do not believe her beyond a reasonable doubt, we cannot ask a jury to do so."
Prosecutors voiced concern that the case appeared to rest exclusively on the housekeeper's account, predicting her "falsehoods" would be "devastating" if revealed during a trial. They claim she "has not been truthful in matters great and small," including lying about a "gang rape, as well as other details about her life in (her native) Guinea."
3. Stocks may recover. But don't expect much.
CNN August 22, 2011
Despite the recent turmoil that has pushed major stock indexes into the red for the year, Wall Street experts are hopeful that the market will soon turnaround.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The major stock indexes are now down for the year thanks to the turmoil this August, but Wall Street experts are optimistic that the market will stage a comeback soon.
Investment strategists and money managers expect the S&P 500 will rally back almost 20% before the year is over, according to an exclusive CNNMoney survey. They expect the index to finish at 1,349, 7% higher than the start of the year.
In fact, only one of the 17 experts surveyed by CNNMoney thinks the S&P 500 finish in the red in 2011.
While strategists are calling for a pretty stellar run for the last four months of the year, they aren't as optimistic as they were just two months ago. In June, they were forecasting the S&P 500 to end 2011 with double-digit gains and hit 1,382. That would be a three-year high.
So what's changed?
"There's no doubting that we've entered into a much slower growthenvironment," said Tyler Vernon, Biltmore Capital chief investment officer. "And along with that, our debt has been downgraded and Europe's debt situation has gotten worse. It's really been a perfect storm for a market sell-off in fear."
But, he added that there is at least one constant amid all the uncertainty: corporate profits are still healthy.
"Company balance sheets have stayed really lean and mean since the last financial crisis," said Vernon, whose year-end target for the S&P 500 is right in line with the consensus estimate of 1,349. "Companies haven't hired and profit margins are the highest they've been in history, so they should continue to do fairly well even through this rough patch."
Those sound fundamentals should be enough to bring investors back into the market, especially considering the steep discount stocks are trading at after the recent slides. But Vernon thinks the Federal Reserve will also step in to help give Wall Street a boost.
"It may just be in rhetoric, but I think the Fed has some bullets left, and going into an election year, I think there will be some pressure on Ben Bernanke to keep this market afloat," he said.
2011年8月23日 星期二
2011年7月12日 星期二
News Clipping 2011.07.14
The New York Times July 7, 2011
ON May 16, the United States hit its legal debt limit of $14.3 trillion. Unless that limit is raised, the Treasury will, on Aug. 2, be unable to pay its bills. It will then have to either stop spending money on government programs, or default on paying the nation’s creditors.
The White House and Congressional Republicans agree in principle that the debt ceiling needs to be raised, but they are at an impasse on how to constrain the deficit’s rapid growth. Meanwhile, some people have theorized that there’s a way to get around the debt limit.
Several law professors and senators, and even Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, have suggested that section 4 of the 14th Amendment, known as the public debt clause, might provide a silver bullet. This provision states that “the validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law ... shall not be questioned.” They argue that the public debt clause is sufficient to nullify the ceiling — or can be used to permit the president to borrow money without regard to the ceiling.
Both approaches provide the false hope of a legal answer that obviates the need for a real solution.
2. How Seawater Can Power the World
The New York Times July 10, 2011
DEBATE about America’s energy supply is heating up: gas prices are rising, ethanol is under attack and nuclear power continues to struggle in the shadow of the Fukushima disaster in Japan.
But an abundant, safe and clean energy source once thought to be the stuff of science fiction is closer than many realize: nuclear fusion. Making it a reality, however, will take significant investment from the government at a time when spending on scientific research is under threat.
Harnessing nuclear fusion, the energy that powers the sun and the stars, has been a goal of physicists worldwide since the 1950s. It is essentially inexhaustible and it can be created using hydrogen isotopes — chemical cousins of hydrogen, like deuterium — that can readily be extracted from seawater.
Fusion energy is created by fusing two atomic nuclei, in the process converting mass to energy, which appears as heat. The heat, as in conventional nuclear fission reactors, turns water into steam, which drives turbines to generate electricity, or is used to produce fuels for transportation or other uses.
Fusion energy generates zero greenhouse gases. It offers no chance of a catastrophic accident. It can be available to all nations, relying only on the Earth’s oceans. When commercialized, it will transform the world’s energy supply.
CNN July 11, 2011
He entered the NBA with a promise like few others. Yao Ming brought a rare combination of talent and the ability to unlock a massive new market for the sport. Nine years later, reports say Yao is set to retire. And despite his best efforts, the sad truth is his career wasn’t what it could have been.
Yao could have been the NBA’s next great center. The NBA has a long history of dominant big men leading their teams to the title, from George Mikan in the 50s, to Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabaar, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Shaquille O’Neal. Yao was drafted at the height of Shaq's dominance in 2002, but he had the tools to take him on.
Shaq’s strength and weight made him an unstoppable force in front of the basket. But Yao’s ability to shoot from further out forced Shaq to leave his comfort zone and chase him; physically moving a seven foot tall obstacle from the hoop. And Yao was a full four inches taller. In their eagerly awaited first meeting, Yao demonstrated his height advantage by blocking Shaq twice in the first few minutes. The Rockets won that game, and Yao had arrived.
But success didn’t quite follow.
4. Australia PM unveils carbon tax targeting biggest 500 polluters
AP July 11, 2011
SYDNEY -- Australia will force its 500 worst polluters to pay AU$23 (US$25) for every ton of carbon dioxide they emit, with the government promising to compensate households hit with higher power bills under a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions unveiled Sunday.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard sought to reassure wary Australians that the deeply unpopular carbon tax will only cause a minority of households to pay more and insisted it is critical to helping the country lower its massive carbon emissions. Australia is one of the world's worst greenhouse gas polluters, due to its heavy reliance on coal for electricity.
“We generate more carbon pollution per head than any other country in the developed world,” Gillard told reporters in Canberra as she released details of the tax, which will go into effect on July 1, 2012. “We've got a lot of work to do to hold our place in the race that the world is running.”
The government hopes businesses affected by the tax will seek out clean energy alternatives to reduce their bills. The affected companies will have to pay AU$23 per metric ton of carbon, with the price rising 2.5 percent a year until 2015, when the plan will move to a market-based emissions trading scheme.
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