- What does Vladimir Putin want next?
CNN
March 21,
2014
Russian
business uneasy after sanctions
- Russian President approval ratings are at highest in recent years
- Analysts are asking if he is a rational actor, or "drunk on power"
- Assumption at NATO headquarters is that Putin won't stop at Crimea
- Russian businesses will suffer as Putin portrays West as adversary not potential partner
Simferopol,
Crimea (CNN) --
Is Russian President Vladimir Putin an opportunist, grabbing at
chances to poke the West in the eye, or a clever strategist with the
longer-term goal of restoring a greater Russia? Is he simply riding a
tide of Russian patriotic fervor over Crimea? Is he a rational actor
aware of the delicate balances within the international system, or as
one observer put it, "drunk
on power"
and oblivious to sanctions?
These
are the questions preoccupying western governments and Russia's
neighbors, after the swift annexation of Crimea and Russian military
maneuvers close to the Ukrainian border.
There
were some tantalizing clues in Putin's pugnacious speech to the Duma
this week. He described the fall of the Soviet Union as unfortunate
-- because it had separated Russians. "The Russian nation became
one of the biggest, if not the biggest ethnic group in the world to
be divided by borders," he said.
"It
was only when Crimea ended up as part of a different country that
Russia realized that it was not simply
robbed, it was plundered."
He went on to say, "if you compress the spring all the way to
its limit, it will snap back hard."
Heady,
populist rhetoric -- but it has propelled the Russian President to
his highest approval rating -- 71% -- in recent years, according to
the Russian
Public Opinion Research Center.
Putin
said Russia had no intention of violating Ukraine's sovereignty
(beyond the 5% of its territory it has absorbed this week.) "Do
not believe those who want you to fear Russia, shouting that other
regions will follow Crimea," he told Ukrainians.
But
he then said this: "It
should be above all in Ukraine's own interest to
ensure that these people's rights and interests are fully protected.
This is the guarantee of Ukraine's state stability and territorial
integrity."
In
other words, if the Kremlin believes Russians are being discriminated
against, Ukraine's independence is no longer assured.
Those
words will have echoed across parts of the former Soviet Union with
large Russian populations: Moldova (10%), Lithuania (6%), Latvia
(27%) and Estonia (25%). Will the Russian region of Transnistria in
Moldova begin agitating for its own referendum? Will oblasts
(regions) of eastern Ukraine demand their own vote?
Transnistria
is already beyond the control of the Moldovan government. Just as a
statue of Lenin overlooks the main square in the Crimean capital,
Simferopol, so another stands outside Transnistria's regional
assembly in Tiraspol. In
a 2006 referendummore
than 95% of voters said they wanted to be reunited with Russia.
- Malaysia Jet’s Vanishing Act Leaves Liability Riddle
The
Bloomberg
Mar 25, 2014
As
the final hours of Malaysian Air Flight 370 remain wrapped in
mystery, the question of who bears full liability for the jet’s
disappearance is also unresolved.
This
much is clear: Families of the 227 passengers aboard the flight that
vanished on March 8 can recover some compensation from Malaysian
Airline System Bhd even if the plane isn’t found. The airline is
liable under international treaty for as much as $175,000 per
passenger, and possibly more.
For
survivors to capture significantly greater damages, wreckage would
probably have to be located and a narrative of the plane’s demise
assembled. Several scenarios have been offered for the flight’s
disappearance, including hijacking, intentional downing or an
on-board fire. Evidence of any of these could open avenues for family
members to sue.
“The
disappearance of Flight 370 remains a mystery. The legal claims
against Malaysia Airlines -- those are not a mystery,” said Robert
Hedrick, a pilot and air-disaster lawyer in Seattle. “If the
wreckage is located, the evidence may establish liability of other
parties.”
Malaysian
Prime Minister Najib Razak appeared to narrow the band of speculation
yesterday, saying that based on satellite data, the plane ended up in
the Indian Ocean west of Perth, Australia -- ruling out theories that
it took a detour over Asia.
‘Deep
Sadness’
“This
is a remote location, far from any possible landing sites,” Najib
said at a news conference in Kuala Lumpur, citing an analysis of data
from satellite provider Inmarsat Plc and the U.K. Air Accidents
Investigation. “It is therefore with deep sadness and regret that I
must inform you that according to this new data, flight MH370 ended
in the southern Indian Ocean.”
Malaysian
Air offered its condolences to passengers’ families and said in a
statement that it had sought to notify families ahead of the prime
minister’s message in person, by telephone and by text message.
Malaysian Air Chairman Md Nor Yusof said in a statement today that
the aircraft was lost and “none of the passengers or crew on board
survived.”
About
two-thirds of the travelers aboard were Chinese, and relatives
gathered in a Beijing hotel yesterday responded with grief and anger.
“All
my family are gone,” screamed one woman who emerged from the
ballroom.
‘Shameless
Actions’
One
relatives’ group condemned yesterday’s announcements as “without
any direct proof.” In a statement, the group, which calls itself
Relatives of the 154 Chinese Passengers of MH370, accused the
carrier, Malaysian government and Malaysian military of delays and
cover-ups during the 18 days since the flight’s disappearance, and
vowed to hold those parties accountable.
- Taiwan police use water cannon to retake government HQ
AFP
March 24,
2014
Taipei
(AFP) - Taiwan riot police unleashed water cannon Monday to dislodge
hundreds of demonstrators who had stormed government headquarters in
violent scenes that dramatically escalated a days-old protest against
a trade pact with China.
After
nearly a week-long occupation of Taiwan's parliament, the protesters
late Sunday also infiltrated the Executive Yuan where the cabinet is
located, pulling down barbed-wire barricades outside and using
ladders to break into offices on the second floor.
The
assault came after President Ma Ying-jeou refused to back down on the
trade pact, which he argues is vital for Taiwan's economic future,
rejecting opposition claims that he is effectively handing the island
over to Chinese control after six decades of political separation.
About
1,000 officers were deployed overnight to forcibly remove the
protesters from the Executive Yuan. Premier Jiang Yi-huah, whose
office is located in the building, said at least 110 people were
injured, including 52 police officers, while police arrested 61
people.
"Suddenly
water was spraying at us and it was very powerful. My glasses flew
off and I was very dizzy," protester Frank Hsieh, a former
premier from the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), told
reporters.
One
injured male protester lay on the ground receiving medical care,
while another was led away with blood streaming down his face, AFP
journalists saw.
After
taking over the building, many protesters had lain on the ground with
their arms linked to defy efforts to shift them.
Police
used riot shields to push the crowds back while some of the
demonstrators tried to grab their batons and pelted them with plastic
bottles. Two water cannon trucks were then deployed early Monday,
eventually subduing the crowd and clearing the building.
"The
government denounces violence and dispersed the crowd according to
the law. We will not tolerate actions designed to paralyse the
government," the presidential office said in a statement.
-
'Let us calm down' -
But
the DPP, which historically has favoured formal independence for
Taiwan, called on Ma to respond to the protesters' demands and scrap
the pact.
"Forcible
dispersals will only cause more students and police to get hurt and
are likely to trigger more outrage and protests," the party said
in a statement.
Ma
has overseen a marked thaw in relations with Beijing since he came to
power in 2008 pledging to strengthen trade and tourism links.
But
China still considers Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting
reunification -- by force if necessary -- while Taipei still styles
itself the legitimate "Republic of China".
The
president warns that trade-reliant Taiwan could be marginalised
without the China agreement -- which is designed to further open up
trade in services -- and similar pacts with other countries, as
regional economic blocs emerge.
"I
must say that (the pact) is completely for the sake of Taiwan's
economic future," Ma told a news conference on Sunday,
denouncing the parliamentary sit-in before the protests spread to the
Executive Yuan.