Latest News Clips 2014.03.31

1. What does Vladimir Putin want next?

CNN March 21, 2014

Russian business uneasy after sanctions

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Russian President approval ratings are at highest in recent years
• Analysts are asking if he is a rational actor, or "drunk on power"
• Assumption at NATO headquarters is that Putin won't stop at Crimea
• Russian businesses will suffer as Putin portrays West as adversary not potential partner

Simferopol, Crimea (CNN) -- Is Russian President Vladimir Putin an opportunist, grabbing at chances to poke the West in the eye, or a clever strategist with the longer-term goal of restoring a greater Russia? Is he simply riding a tide of Russian patriotic fervor over Crimea? Is he a rational actor aware of the delicate balances within the international system, or as one observer put it, "drunk on power" and oblivious to sanctions?

These are the questions preoccupying western governments and Russia's neighbors, after the swift annexation of Crimea and Russian military maneuvers close to the Ukrainian border.

There were some tantalizing clues in Putin's pugnacious speech to the Duma this week. He described the fall of the Soviet Union as unfortunate -- because it had separated Russians. "The Russian nation became one of the biggest, if not the biggest ethnic group in the world to be divided by borders," he said.

"It was only when Crimea ended up as part of a different country that Russia realized that it was not simply robbed, it was plundered." He went on to say, "if you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard."

Heady, populist rhetoric -- but it has propelled the Russian President to his highest approval rating -- 71% -- in recent years, according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center.

Putin said Russia had no intention of violating Ukraine's sovereignty (beyond the 5% of its territory it has absorbed this week.) "Do not believe those who want you to fear Russia, shouting that other regions will follow Crimea," he told Ukrainians.

But he then said this: "It should be above all in Ukraine's own interest to ensure that these people's rights and interests are fully protected. This is the guarantee of Ukraine's state stability and territorial integrity."

In other words, if the Kremlin believes Russians are being discriminated against, Ukraine's independence is no longer assured.

Those words will have echoed across parts of the former Soviet Union with large Russian populations: Moldova (10%), Lithuania (6%), Latvia (27%) and Estonia (25%). Will the Russian region of Transnistria in Moldova begin agitating for its own referendum? Will oblasts (regions) of eastern Ukraine demand their own vote?

Transnistria is already beyond the control of the Moldovan government. Just as a statue of Lenin overlooks the main square in the Crimean capital, Simferopol, so another stands outside Transnistria's regional assembly in Tiraspol. In a 2006 referendummore than 95% of voters said they wanted to be reunited with Russia.

2. Malaysia Jet’s Vanishing Act Leaves Liability Riddle

The Bloomberg Mar 25, 2014

As the final hours of Malaysian Air Flight 370 remain wrapped in mystery, the question of who bears full liability for the jet’s disappearance is also unresolved.

This much is clear: Families of the 227 passengers aboard the flight that vanished on March 8 can recover some compensation from Malaysian Airline System Bhd even if the plane isn’t found. The airline is liable under international treaty for as much as $175,000 per passenger, and possibly more.

For survivors to capture significantly greater damages, wreckage would probably have to be located and a narrative of the plane’s demise assembled. Several scenarios have been offered for the flight’s disappearance, including hijacking, intentional downing or an on-board fire. Evidence of any of these could open avenues for family members to sue.

“The disappearance of Flight 370 remains a mystery. The legal claims against Malaysia Airlines -- those are not a mystery,” said Robert Hedrick, a pilot and air-disaster lawyer in Seattle. “If the wreckage is located, the evidence may establish liability of other parties.”

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak appeared to narrow the band of speculation yesterday, saying that based on satellite data, the plane ended up in the Indian Ocean west of Perth, Australia -- ruling out theories that it took a detour over Asia.

‘Deep Sadness’

“This is a remote location, far from any possible landing sites,” Najib said at a news conference in Kuala Lumpur, citing an analysis of data from satellite provider Inmarsat Plc and the U.K. Air Accidents Investigation. “It is therefore with deep sadness and regret that I must inform you that according to this new data, flight MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean.”

Malaysian Air offered its condolences to passengers’ families and said in a statement that it had sought to notify families ahead of the prime minister’s message in person, by telephone and by text message. Malaysian Air Chairman Md Nor Yusof said in a statement today that the aircraft was lost and “none of the passengers or crew on board survived.”

About two-thirds of the travelers aboard were Chinese, and relatives gathered in a Beijing hotel yesterday responded with grief and anger.

“All my family are gone,” screamed one woman who emerged from the ballroom.

‘Shameless Actions’

One relatives’ group condemned yesterday’s announcements as “without any direct proof.” In a statement, the group, which calls itself Relatives of the 154 Chinese Passengers of MH370, accused the carrier, Malaysian government and Malaysian military of delays and cover-ups during the 18 days since the flight’s disappearance, and vowed to hold those parties accountable.

3. Taiwan police use water cannon to retake government HQ
   

AFP March 24, 2014

Taipei (AFP) - Taiwan riot police unleashed water cannon Monday to dislodge hundreds of demonstrators who had stormed government headquarters in violent scenes that dramatically escalated a days-old protest against a trade pact with China.

After nearly a week-long occupation of Taiwan's parliament, the protesters late Sunday also infiltrated the Executive Yuan where the cabinet is located, pulling down barbed-wire barricades outside and using ladders to break into offices on the second floor.

The assault came after President Ma Ying-jeou refused to back down on the trade pact, which he argues is vital for Taiwan's economic future, rejecting opposition claims that he is effectively handing the island over to Chinese control after six decades of political separation.

About 1,000 officers were deployed overnight to forcibly remove the protesters from the Executive Yuan. Premier Jiang Yi-huah, whose office is located in the building, said at least 110 people were injured, including 52 police officers, while police arrested 61 people.

"Suddenly water was spraying at us and it was very powerful. My glasses flew off and I was very dizzy," protester Frank Hsieh, a former premier from the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), told reporters.

One injured male protester lay on the ground receiving medical care, while another was led away with blood streaming down his face, AFP journalists saw.

After taking over the building, many protesters had lain on the ground with their arms linked to defy efforts to shift them.

Police used riot shields to push the crowds back while some of the demonstrators tried to grab their batons and pelted them with plastic bottles. Two water cannon trucks were then deployed early Monday, eventually subduing the crowd and clearing the building.

"The government denounces violence and dispersed the crowd according to the law. We will not tolerate actions designed to paralyse the government," the presidential office said in a statement.

- 'Let us calm down' -

But the DPP, which historically has favoured formal independence for Taiwan, called on Ma to respond to the protesters' demands and scrap the pact.

"Forcible dispersals will only cause more students and police to get hurt and are likely to trigger more outrage and protests," the party said in a statement.

Ma has overseen a marked thaw in relations with Beijing since he came to power in 2008 pledging to strengthen trade and tourism links.

But China still considers Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification -- by force if necessary -- while Taipei still styles itself the legitimate "Republic of China".

The president warns that trade-reliant Taiwan could be marginalised without the China agreement -- which is designed to further open up trade in services -- and similar pacts with other countries, as regional economic blocs emerge.

"I must say that (the pact) is completely for the sake of Taiwan's economic future," Ma told a news conference on Sunday, denouncing the parliamentary sit-in before the protests spread to the Executive Yuan.