- Yemen crisis: Who is fighting whom?
BBC 26 March 2015
Yemen unrest
Yemen is in the grip of its most severe crisis in years, as competing forces fight for control of the country.
Impoverished but strategically important, the tussle for power in Yemen has serious implications for the region and the security of the West.
Here are some key questions explained.
Who is fighting whom?
In recent months Yemen has descended into conflicts between several different groups, pushing the country "to the edge of civil war", according to the UN's special adviser.
The main fight is between forces loyal to the beleaguered President, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, and those allied to Zaidi Shia rebels known as Houthis, who forced Mr Hadi to flee the capital Sanaa in February.
Yemen's security forces have split loyalties, with some units backing Mr Hadi, and others the Houthis and Mr Hadi's predecessor Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has remained politically influential. Mr Hadi is also supported in the predominantly Sunni south of the country by militia known as Popular Resistance Committees and local tribesmen.
Both President Hadi and the Houthis are opposed by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which has staged numerous deadly attacks from its strongholds in the south and south-east.
The picture is further complicated by the emergence in late 2014 of a Yemen affiliate of the jihadist group Islamic State, which seeks to eclipse AQAP and claims it carried out a series of suicide bombings in Sanaa in March 2015.
After rebel forces closed in on the president's southern stronghold of Aden in late March, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia responded to a request by Mr Hadi to intervene and launched air strikes on Houthi targets. The coalition comprises five Gulf Arab states and Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan and Sudan.
Why does it matter for the rest of the world?
What happens in Yemen can greatly exacerbate regional tensions. It also worries the West because of the threat of attacks emanating from the country as it becomes more unstable.
Western intelligence agencies consider AQAP the most dangerous branch of al-Qaeda because of its technical expertise and global reach. The US has been carrying out operations, including drone strikes, against AQAP in Yemen with President Hadi's co-operation, but the Houthis' advance has meant the US campaign has been scaled back.
The conflict between the Houthis and the elected government is also seen as part of a regional power struggle between Shia-ruled Iran and Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, which shares a long border with Yemen.
- A Window on China’s New Normal
MAR 27, 2015
CAMBRIDGE – Every year at this time, China’s government organizes a major conference – sponsored by the Development Research Center, the official think tank of the State Council – that brings together senior Chinese officials, CEOs from major Chinese and Western firms, and a small group of international officials and academics. The China Development Forum (CDF) occurs just after the annual National People’s Congress.
At the forum, speakers, including the finance minister and the head of the central bank, summarize the Chinese leadership’s current thinking. Officials then listen to comments and suggestions from Western business and academic participants, including a question and answer session with Premier Li Keqiang.
Although I have been attending the CDF’s meetings for more than a decade, I found this year’s conference substantially different from any in the past. The key difference was the official Chinese recognition that annual real GDP growth has declined permanently from the past three decades’ average rate of nearly 10%. The official estimate is that real GDP grew 7.4% in 2014, and that the rate will probably slow further, to 7%, this year. The Development Research Center presented detailed estimates showing that the growth rate will continue to decline, reaching about 6% by the end of the decade.
Virtually every Chinese official referred to this slowdown as their country’s “new normal.” They all seemed reconciled to slower growth, which was initially surprising, because officials previously argued that China needed rapid growth to maintain employment and avoid political unrest. They now appear to understand that the declining growth rate will not lead to unemployment, because the slowdown reflects China’s structural shift from export-oriented heavy industrial production to increased production of consumer services, which require more employment to create the same amount of value.
Stronger growth nevertheless remains necessary, because China is still a relatively low-income country with substantial poverty. Although China’s total real GDP is second only to that of the United States (and might be larger when measured in terms of purchasing power), its per capita income is only about $7,000, or roughly 15% of the US level. And consumption remains low – only about 50% of GDP when government spending is included, and just 35% when limited to household consumer spending. So China has a long way to go to reach its leaders’ goal of achieving a “modern prosperous society.”
The Chinese see that the “new normal” requires a shift in their growth strategy from factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth. But it is not clear how that increase in innovation will be achieved. While officials stress reliance on the market, China does not have the venture capital and “angel financing” that facilitates innovation in the US. The authorities may hope that their plan to insure bank deposits will shift deposits from the three largest banks to many smaller banks around the country, facilitating local startups’ access to financing.
Many other economic problems loom. Officials acknowledged at the CDF that the biggest risks lie in the financial sector, particularly owing to local governments’ very large liabilities. In the past, the government dealt with the problems that these liabilities caused for the banking system by injecting funds into the banks.
Environmental problems are another powerful drag on China’s current standard of living. But they also represent a potential way to increase GDP should overall demand decline significantly. China acknowledges that high levels of air and water pollution create discomfort and harm the public’s health. Government spending on remedying environmental damage could absorb substantial funds if demand-side weakness exacerbates the expected supply-side slowdown.
Moreover, the very weak performance of state-owned enterprises, which continue to play a large role in heavy industry and in some service sectors, represents a powerful brake on growth. Although official policy aims to reduce these firms’ role so that “the market can play the decisive role in resource allocation,” shrinking these firms has proved to be difficult, owing to their strong political backing within the Chinese Communist Party.
- Co-Pilot in Germanwings Crash Hid Mental Illness From Employer, Authorities Say
The New York Times MARCH 27, 2015
DÜSSELDORF, Germany — Andreas Lubitz, the pilot at the controls of the Germanwings jetliner that crashed into the French Alps on Tuesday, had a mental illness but kept the diagnosis hidden from his employer, the authorities said Friday.
A psychiatric diagnosis might explain why Mr. Lubitz, a 27-year-old German, did not disclose his full medical record to Germanwings and its parent company, Lufthansa. Lufthansa company policy requires notification of conditions that could affect flying or a pilot’s license.
Prosecutors said Friday that among the items found at Mr. Lubitz’s home were several doctors’ notes stating that he was too ill to work, including on the day of the crash; one of the notes had been torn up. These documents “support the preliminary assessment that the deceased hid his illness from his employer and colleagues,” the prosecutors said in a statement.
But there remained considerable confusion about the precise nature and severity of his psychiatric condition. A German hospital said it had evaluated Mr. Lubitz twice in the past two months but added that he had not been there for assessment or treatment of depression.
The crash killed Mr. Lubitz and the other 149 people on board the Airbus A320 jetliner bound from Barcelona, Spain, to Düsseldorf, Germany, on Tuesday morning.
Airlines and their regulatory agencies have longstanding processes to screen for pilots whose mental illness could affect their flying ability or even jeopardize the lives of their passengers, crew and people on the ground. But the gatekeeping system in the United States and abroad relies heavily on pilots’ volunteering information about their illnesses.
The German investigators said they had not found a suicide note or “any indication of a political or religious” nature among the documents from Mr. Lubitz’s apartment in Düsseldorf. They also played down the possibility that his actions were the result of a romantic breakup, saying he was in a long-term relationship.
“However, documents were secured containing medical information that indicates an illness and corresponding treatment by doctors,” Ralf Herrenbrück, a spokesman for prosecutors in Düsseldorf, said in a statement.
The Federal Aviation Office of Germany said Friday that a medical certificate issued to Mr. Lubitz that allowed him to fly noted that he had a medical condition, although it did not specify whether it was related to a psychological issue. A history of mental health issues like depression does not preclude being cleared to fly.
The absentee notes found in Mr. Lubitz’s apartment were from different doctors, suggesting that he sought a second opinion for a recent diagnosis, prosecutors said.
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