Latest News Clips 2018.05.07

1.      U.S. Allies Brace for Trade War as Tariff Negotiations Stall

Mercedes cars at a shipping terminal in Bremerhaven, Germany. German cars are one of the sticking points in talks on whether temporary American exemptions to steel and aluminum tariffs for the European Union will be made permanent.CreditFabian Bimmer/Reuters

The New York Times  April 29, 2018

BERLIN — A few weeks ago, it felt as if a trade war pitting the United States against allies like Australia, Canada and the European Union was over before it even began. The Trump administration dispensed so many temporary exemptions to steel and aluminum tariffs that many countries figured the threats were just political theater.

But with only days left before the exemptions expire and punitive tariffs take effect, it’s dawning on foreign leaders that decades of warm relations with the United States carry little weight with a president dismissive of diplomatic norms and hostile toward the ground rules of international trade.

What began as a way to protect American steel and aluminum jobs has since become a cudgel that the Trump administration is using to extract concessions in other areas, including car exports to Europe or negotiations to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada.

As a May 1 deadline looms, the decision on whether to grant permanent exemptions to the steel and aluminum tariffs, and to whom, appears likely to come down to the whims of President Trump, who has seesawed between scrapping and rejoining global trade deals.

The European Union, the United States’ biggest trading partner, indicated over the weekend that it was losing hope of reaching an agreement in the face of what many of the region’s political leaders regard as unreasonable demands. While a last-minute extension of the deadline is still possible, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France, who each met with President Trump in Washington last week, spoke with Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain over the weekend about enacting retaliatory tariffs if the European Union did not receive an exemption.

The German government said in a statement that Ms. Merkel, Mr. Macron and Ms. May agreed that if the tariffs go into force, “The European Union should be ready to decisively defend its interests within the framework of multilateral trade rules.”

The uncertainty is sowing chaos in international supply networks. Car companies and other manufacturers do not know whether ships carrying steel may suddenly be barred from American ports.

Some countries are confident they will avoid the tariffs. Australia is treating an exemption as if it’s a done deal. Brazil, which primarily exports slab steel to American manufacturers, is hoping to escape by agreeing on limited quotas for more sophisticated products. Argentina is counting on the good relationship between its president, Mauricio Macri, and Mr. Trump.

 “In the conversations that we have on the issue, the positive relationships between our governments — and our presidents — certainly comes up,” Miguel Braun, Argentina’s trade secretary, said in an interview.

But it’s unclear whether the confidence is justified. The White House has not confirmed that Australia, Brazil or Argentina will receive exemptions.

In terms of the potential disruption to the global economy, the dispute with Europe may be the most critical. The United States and the European Union account for about one-third of world trade.

Only a few years ago the United States and Europe were discussing the possibility of eliminating almost all trans-Atlantic trade barriers. Now they are stymied by fundamentally different worldviews. As the Europeans see it, Mr. Trump is demanding concessions that would make them accomplices in dismantling a postwar trade framework they hold sacred.

The Europeans want to play by the rules of the World Trade Organization; the Americans are making demands that would force the Europeans to break them.

“If we stick to the rules,” said Thiess Petersen, an analyst at the Bertelsmann Foundation in Germany, “there is no chance for concessions.”

2.      Nobel prize in literature 2018 cancelled after sexual assault scandal

Swedish Academy says it needs to ‘commit time to recovering public confidence’ after string of resignations and wide-ranging scandal

The Guardian    4 May 2018

Riven by infighting and resignations following allegations of sexual misconduct, financial malpractice and repeated leaks, the Swedish Academy has said no Nobel prize for literature will be awarded this year.

For the first time since 1949, the secretive jury that hands out the world’s most prestigious literary prize will not unveil a winner this autumn, instead revealing two laureates in 2019, it announced on Friday.

“The present decision was arrived at in view of the currently diminished academy and the reduced public confidence in the academy,” the body, founded by King Gustav III in 1786 and still under royal patronage, said in a statement.

“We find it necessary to commit time to recovering public confidence ... before the next laureate can be announced,” its interim permanent secretary Anders Olsson said. “This is out of respect for previous and future literature laureates, the Nobel Foundation and the general public.”

At the root of the institution’s unprecedented crisis are a raft of wide-ranging allegations against Jean-Claude Arnault, a photographer and leading cultural figure in Sweden, who is married to Katarina Frostenson, an academy member and author.

Last November, the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter published detailed allegations by 18 women accusing Arnault of sexual harassment and physical abuse over a period of more than 20 years, in France and Sweden and including at properties owned by the academy.

For years, Arnault and Frostenson ran Forum, a club in Stockholm that showcased exhibitions, readings and performances by prominent cultural personalities including Nobel laureates. Now closed, the club was partly funded by the academy, prompting allegations of a conflict of interest.

As the escalating scandal unfolded, Dagens Nyheter also reported that an internal investigation by the academy had concluded that Arnault may have leaked the names of seven Nobel literature laureates – the subject of heavy betting – in advance, including those of Bob Dylan in 2016 and Harold Pinter in 2005. 

The Franco-Swedish photographer’s lawyer, Björn Hurtig, has repeatedly said his client denies all the allegations against him, adding that Arnault has become “the victim of a witch hunt” and that the accusations “may have been made with the sole purpose of harming” him.

The hidebound and traditionally deeply patriarchal academy’s inability to respond adequately to the allegations against Arnault sparked a bitter internal feud, with members exchanging public insults in the pages of the Swedish media. 

Three members of the 18-strong body resigned last month in protest over a decision not to expel Frostenson, followed days later – amid protests that women were being made to carry the can for male misbehaviour – by the permanent secretary, Sara Danius, who had battled in vain to reform it, and Frostenson herself.

Technically, academy members are appointed for life and not permitted to resign, although they could choose to leave their chairs empty. But with the body now down to 10 active members – and 12 required to elect new ones – King Carl XVI Gustaf this week announced a change in its statutes to ensure its survival.

The decision to postpone the 2018 award was broadly welcomed. “I think it’s wise; this is the best decision they could make,” said Dagens Nyheter’s literature critic, Maria Schottenius. “They’ll have a chance to restore the institution this year and fill the empty seats, and come back with a strong academy that can award the prize.”

One academy member, Göran Malmqvist, told Sweden’s TT news agency that the body was in crisis and would take time to rebuild. But Jens Liljestrand of the Expressen newspaper told TT it was “a disaster for the Swedish Academy’s reputation … that they didn’t manage to handle this better”.

The Nobel Foundation, which administers the estate of dynamite inventor Alfred Nobel, said the crisis had “adversely affected” the Nobel prize and its judges. “Their decision underscores the seriousness of the situation and will help safeguard the long-term reputation of the prize,” it said in statement.

Public prosecutors have said they are dropping parts of their probe against Arnault due to a lack of evidence, but the bulk of the investigation continues. Sweden’s economic crimes bureau last week said it was investigating a case linked to the academy, widely assumed to be the subsidies it paid to Arnault.

How the academy chooses the winner of the literature award has remained opaque for decades. Each February, academy members review around 200 nominations, coming up with a shortlist by May, and then reading up on the five authors still in the running for the prize over the summer.

The winner is the author deemed to best fulfil Alfred Nobel’s desire to reward “the most outstanding work in an ideal direction”.

The honour has not been awarded at all on seven occasions since its launch in 1901, although previously never over a scandal. The prize was missed in 1914, 1918, 1940, 1941, 1942 and 1943, during the first and second world wars, and in 1935 for reasons never disclosed. It has also been “reserved” – due to a lack of suitable winners – in 1915, 1919, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1936 and 1949.

The chairman of the Foundation, Carl-Henrik Heldin, said separately that the awarding of the 2018 Nobel prizes in other categories would not be affected. The Foundation now expects the academy to “put all its efforts” into restoring its credibility, Heldin said, calling on the remaining members to show “greater openness towards the outside world” in future.

3.      The New Retirement: Near the Kids

The New York Times   May 4, 2018

Thirty-five years ago, Holly Bowers Ruben moved from California to New York, following an actor boyfriend to Brooklyn. The relationship didn’t last, but Ms. Ruben never moved back, although her mother, Marie-Louise Bowers, stayed out west.

That arrangement worked — mostly. “I did talk to my mom on a daily basis. That’s kind of the relationship we had, even when she was in California,” Ms. Ruben said.

But last year Ms. Bowers, 87, started having trouble getting around, and Ms. Ruben felt that helping her mother from across the country was at best a difficult prospect. In January, Ms. Ruben moved her mother to Sunrise at Mill Basin, in Brooklyn.

“Just in case she fell, I know that there’s something here, versus ‘how am I going to help her when she’s in Walnut Creek, Calif., and I’m in Brooklyn?’ Peace of mind — that has been a huge gift,” Ms. Ruben said. And coincidentally, soon after Ms. Bowers moved east, Ms. Ruben had to undergo a battery of tests for what turned out to be a noncancerous brain mass, and she was comforted by having her mother nearby.

Ms. Ruben and her mother are an example of a phenomenon that is driving an increase in the construction of senior housing across the United States. More assisted living, independent living and continuing care retirement communities are being built — not necessarily in the warmer climates where seniors have traditionally retired, like Florida and Arizona, but wherever economies are robust and booming, in places like New York, Denver, Chicago and Atlanta.

It is not uncommon for today’s seniors to live well into their 80s, 90s, even past 100. And when they can no longer be entirely independent, many are moving to be near their adult children for help in the last stage of their lives.

The need for more of this kind of housing is also driven by the need to combat what many see as a growing problem of isolation among people in this older generation. Of Americans age 65 and older, 28 percent — 11 million people — live alone, according to the United States Census Bureau. And the National Council on Aging estimates that eight million adults over the age of 50 are affected by isolation, which can harm both mental and physical health, said Lisa Marsh Ryerson, president of the AARP Foundation, which introduced Connect2Affect in 2016 to help raise awareness and offer solutions to senior isolation.

Ms. Ryerson said that the health effects of prolonged isolation have been found to be the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day, according to a study in Perspectives on Psychological Science. A study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America also found that social isolation and loneliness are associated with higher risk of mortality in adults 52 and older.

Holly Bowers Ruben moved her mother, Marie-Louise Bowers, from California to Sunrise at Mill Basin, in Brooklyn, when Ms. Bowers started having trouble getting around.CreditStefano Ukmar for The New York Times

Senior living communities, where people of similar ages and abilities live together, can help combat that isolation, as can moving closer to adult children, who can then more easily help take care of their parent’s needs.

 “It’s often the case that the adult child — and usually adult daughter — visits their parent and finds there’s something that’s not completely copacetic,” said Beth Burnham Mace, chief economist and director of outreach for the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care. “They left the stove on, or have ambulatory needs, or trouble with meds. Something sets off an alarm bell that they need some type of assistance.”

As Ms. Ryerson pointed out, “We need meaningful connections.” When senior parents move closer to their adult children, those connections are often more frequent, and more personal.