1. U.S. Allies Brace for Trade War as Tariff Negotiations Stall
Mercedes
cars at a shipping terminal in Bremerhaven, Germany. German cars are one of the
sticking points in talks on whether temporary American exemptions to steel and
aluminum tariffs for the European Union will be made permanent.CreditFabian
Bimmer/Reuters
The New York Times April 29, 2018
BERLIN
— A few weeks ago, it felt as if a trade war pitting the United States against
allies like Australia, Canada and the European Union was over before it even
began. The Trump administration dispensed so many temporary exemptions to steel
and aluminum tariffs that many countries figured the threats were just
political theater.
But
with only days left before the exemptions expire and punitive tariffs take
effect, it’s dawning on foreign leaders that decades of warm relations with the
United States carry little weight with a president dismissive of diplomatic
norms and hostile toward the ground rules of international trade.
What
began as a way to protect American steel and aluminum jobs has since become a
cudgel that the Trump administration is using to extract concessions in other
areas, including car exports to Europe or negotiations to revise the North
American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada.
As
a May 1 deadline looms, the decision on whether to grant permanent exemptions
to the steel and aluminum tariffs, and to whom, appears likely to come down to
the whims of President Trump, who has seesawed between scrapping and rejoining
global trade deals.
The
European Union, the United States’ biggest trading partner, indicated over the
weekend that it was losing hope of reaching an agreement in the face of what
many of the region’s political leaders regard as unreasonable demands. While a
last-minute extension of the deadline is still possible, Chancellor Angela
Merkel of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France, who each met with
President Trump in Washington last week, spoke with Prime Minister Theresa May
of Britain over the weekend about enacting retaliatory tariffs if the European
Union did not receive an exemption.
The
German government said in a statement that Ms. Merkel, Mr. Macron and
Ms. May agreed that if the tariffs go into force, “The European Union should be
ready to decisively defend its interests within the framework of multilateral
trade rules.”
The
uncertainty is sowing chaos in international supply networks. Car companies and
other manufacturers do not know whether ships carrying steel may suddenly be
barred from American ports.
Some
countries are confident they will avoid the tariffs. Australia is treating an
exemption as if it’s a done deal. Brazil, which primarily exports slab steel to
American manufacturers, is hoping to escape by agreeing on limited quotas for
more sophisticated products. Argentina is counting on the good relationship
between its president, Mauricio Macri, and Mr. Trump.
“In the conversations that we have on the
issue, the positive relationships between our governments — and our presidents
— certainly comes up,” Miguel Braun, Argentina’s trade secretary, said in an
interview.
But
it’s unclear whether the confidence is justified. The White House has not
confirmed that Australia, Brazil or Argentina will receive exemptions.
In
terms of the potential disruption to the global economy, the dispute with Europe
may be the most critical. The United States and the European Union account for
about one-third of world trade.
Only
a few years ago the United States and Europe were discussing the possibility of
eliminating almost all trans-Atlantic trade barriers. Now they are stymied by
fundamentally different worldviews. As the Europeans see it, Mr. Trump is
demanding concessions that would make them accomplices in dismantling a postwar
trade framework they hold sacred.
The
Europeans want to play by the rules of the World Trade Organization; the
Americans are making demands that would force the Europeans to break them.
“If
we stick to the rules,” said Thiess Petersen, an analyst at the Bertelsmann
Foundation in Germany, “there is no chance for concessions.”
2.
Nobel prize in
literature 2018 cancelled after sexual assault scandal
Swedish Academy says it needs to ‘commit time to recovering public
confidence’ after string of resignations and wide-ranging scandal
The Guardian 4 May 2018
Riven
by infighting and resignations following allegations of sexual misconduct,
financial malpractice and repeated leaks, the Swedish Academy has said no Nobel
prize for literature will be awarded this year.
For
the first time since 1949, the secretive jury that hands out the world’s most
prestigious literary prize will not unveil a winner this autumn, instead
revealing two laureates in 2019, it announced on Friday.
“The
present decision was arrived at in view of the currently diminished academy and
the reduced public confidence in the academy,” the body, founded by King Gustav
III in 1786 and still under royal patronage, said in a statement.
“We
find it necessary to commit time to recovering public confidence ... before the
next laureate can be announced,” its interim permanent secretary Anders Olsson
said. “This is out of respect for previous and future literature laureates, the
Nobel Foundation and the general public.”
At
the root of the institution’s unprecedented crisis are a raft of wide-ranging
allegations against Jean-Claude Arnault, a photographer and leading cultural
figure in Sweden,
who is married to Katarina Frostenson, an academy member and author.
Last
November, the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter published detailed allegations
by 18 women accusing Arnault of sexual harassment and physical abuse over a
period of more than 20 years, in France and Sweden and including at properties
owned by the academy.
For
years, Arnault and Frostenson ran Forum, a club in Stockholm that showcased
exhibitions, readings and performances by prominent cultural personalities
including Nobel laureates. Now closed, the club was partly funded by the
academy, prompting allegations of a conflict of interest.
As
the escalating scandal unfolded, Dagens Nyheter also reported that an internal
investigation by the academy had concluded that Arnault may have leaked the
names of seven Nobel literature laureates – the subject of heavy betting – in
advance, including those of Bob Dylan in 2016 and Harold Pinter in 2005.
The
Franco-Swedish photographer’s lawyer, Björn Hurtig, has repeatedly said his
client denies all the allegations against him, adding that Arnault has become
“the victim of a witch hunt” and that the accusations “may have been made with
the sole purpose of harming” him.
The
hidebound and traditionally deeply patriarchal academy’s inability to respond
adequately to the allegations against Arnault sparked a bitter internal feud,
with members exchanging public insults in the pages of the Swedish media.
Three
members of the 18-strong body resigned last month in protest over a decision
not to expel Frostenson, followed days later – amid protests that women were
being made to carry the can for male misbehaviour – by
the permanent secretary, Sara Danius, who had battled in vain to reform it,
and Frostenson herself.
Technically,
academy members are appointed for life and not permitted to resign, although
they could choose to leave their chairs empty. But with the body now down to 10
active members – and 12 required to elect new ones – King Carl XVI Gustaf this
week announced a change in its statutes to ensure its survival.
The
decision to postpone the 2018 award was broadly welcomed. “I think it’s wise;
this is the best decision they could make,” said Dagens Nyheter’s literature
critic, Maria Schottenius. “They’ll have a chance to restore the institution
this year and fill the empty seats, and come back with a strong academy that
can award the prize.”
One
academy member, Göran Malmqvist, told Sweden’s TT news agency that the body was
in crisis and would take time to rebuild. But Jens Liljestrand of the Expressen
newspaper told TT it was “a disaster for the Swedish Academy’s reputation …
that they didn’t manage to handle this better”.
The Nobel
Foundation, which administers the estate of dynamite inventor Alfred Nobel,
said the crisis had “adversely affected” the Nobel prize and its judges. “Their
decision underscores the seriousness of the situation and will help safeguard
the long-term reputation of the prize,” it said in statement.
Public
prosecutors have said they are dropping parts of their probe against Arnault
due to a lack of evidence, but the bulk of the investigation continues.
Sweden’s economic crimes bureau last week said it was investigating a case
linked to the academy, widely assumed to be the subsidies it paid to Arnault.
How
the academy chooses the winner of the literature award has remained opaque for
decades. Each February, academy members review around 200 nominations, coming
up with a shortlist by May, and then reading up on the five authors still in
the running for the prize over the summer.
The
winner is the author deemed to best fulfil Alfred Nobel’s desire to reward “the
most outstanding work in an ideal direction”.
The
honour has not been awarded at all on seven occasions since its launch in 1901,
although previously never over a scandal. The prize was missed in 1914, 1918,
1940, 1941, 1942 and 1943, during the first and second world wars, and in 1935
for reasons never disclosed. It has also been “reserved” – due to a lack of
suitable winners – in 1915, 1919, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1936 and 1949.
The
chairman of the Foundation, Carl-Henrik Heldin, said separately that the
awarding of the 2018 Nobel prizes in other categories would not be affected.
The Foundation now expects the academy to “put all its efforts” into restoring
its credibility, Heldin said, calling on the remaining members to show “greater
openness towards the outside world” in future.
3.
The New
Retirement: Near the Kids
The New York Times May 4, 2018
Thirty-five
years ago, Holly Bowers Ruben moved from California to New York, following an
actor boyfriend to Brooklyn. The relationship didn’t last, but Ms. Ruben never
moved back, although her mother, Marie-Louise Bowers, stayed out west.
That
arrangement worked — mostly. “I did talk to my mom on a daily basis. That’s
kind of the relationship we had, even when she was in California,” Ms. Ruben
said.
But
last year Ms. Bowers, 87, started having trouble getting around, and Ms. Ruben
felt that helping her mother from across the country was at best a difficult
prospect. In January, Ms. Ruben moved her mother to Sunrise at Mill Basin, in Brooklyn.
“Just
in case she fell, I know that there’s something here, versus ‘how am I going to
help her when she’s in Walnut Creek, Calif., and I’m in Brooklyn?’ Peace of
mind — that has been a huge gift,” Ms. Ruben said. And coincidentally, soon
after Ms. Bowers moved east, Ms. Ruben had to undergo a battery of tests for
what turned out to be a noncancerous brain mass, and she was comforted by
having her mother nearby.
Ms.
Ruben and her mother are an example of a phenomenon that is driving an increase
in the construction of senior housing across the United States. More assisted
living, independent living and continuing care retirement communities are being
built — not necessarily in the warmer climates where seniors have traditionally
retired, like Florida and Arizona, but wherever economies are robust and
booming, in places like New York, Denver, Chicago and Atlanta.
It
is not uncommon for today’s seniors to live well into their 80s, 90s, even past
100. And when they can no longer be entirely independent, many are moving to be
near their adult children for help in the last stage of their lives.
The
need for more of this kind of housing is also driven by the need to combat what
many see as a growing problem of isolation among people in this older
generation. Of Americans age 65 and older, 28 percent — 11 million people —
live alone, according to the United States Census Bureau. And the National Council on Aging estimates
that eight million adults over the age of 50 are affected by isolation, which
can harm both mental and physical health, said Lisa Marsh Ryerson, president of
the AARP Foundation, which introduced Connect2Affect in 2016 to help raise awareness and
offer solutions to senior isolation.
Ms. Ryerson said that the health effects of prolonged isolation have been found to be the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day, according to a study in Perspectives on Psychological Science. A study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America also found that social isolation and loneliness are associated with higher risk of mortality in adults 52 and older.
Holly
Bowers Ruben moved her mother, Marie-Louise Bowers, from California to Sunrise
at Mill Basin, in Brooklyn, when Ms. Bowers started having trouble getting
around.CreditStefano Ukmar for The New York Times
Senior
living communities, where people of similar ages and abilities live together,
can help combat that isolation, as can moving closer to adult children, who can
then more easily help take care of their parent’s needs.
“It’s often the case that the adult child —
and usually adult daughter — visits their parent and finds there’s something
that’s not completely copacetic,” said Beth Burnham Mace, chief economist and
director of outreach for the National
Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care. “They left the stove on,
or have ambulatory needs, or trouble with meds. Something sets off an alarm
bell that they need some type of assistance.”
As
Ms. Ryerson pointed out, “We need meaningful connections.” When senior parents
move closer to their adult children, those connections are often more frequent,
and more personal.
